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Radunia Stężyca vs Polonia Warszawa — II Liga - East 2019

Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
9/11/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 10Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Radunia Stężyca34%
×Draw25%
Polonia Warszawa41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radunia Stężyca
1.35
Polonia Warszawa
1.52

Polonia Warszawa creates 13% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 17 away

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.59
Polonia Warszawa
1.76

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.27
Polonia Warszawa
1.12

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par
Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Polonia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw
59%
Radunia Stężyca or Polonia Warszawa
75%
Draw or Polonia Warszawa
66%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
15%
Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
74%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
39%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
15%
Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
78%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
45%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
45%
Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Polonia Warszawa away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.59 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.76 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more
34%
level
25%
Polonia Warszawa scores more
41%

Polonia Warszawa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radunia Stężyca vs Polonia Warszawa

Polonia Warszawa beat Radunia Stężyca 3-2 in II Liga - East on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Gminny Stadion Sportowy in Stężyca.