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Polonia Warszawa vs Radunia Stężyca — II Liga - East 2019

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
4/15/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 27Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Polonia Warszawa50%
×Draw24%
Radunia Stężyca25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
1.69
Radunia Stężyca
1.13

Polonia Warszawa creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 61 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.59
Radunia Stężyca
1.25

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.00
Radunia Stężyca
1.79

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
75%
Polonia Warszawa or Radunia Stężyca
76%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
50%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
27%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
82%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
50%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
24%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
68%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
31%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
66%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.59 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.69

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.25 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
50%
level
24%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
25%

Polonia Warszawa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Warszawa vs Radunia Stężyca

Polonia Warszawa beat Radunia Stężyca 3-2 in II Liga - East on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.