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Radunia Stężyca vs Polonia Bytom — II Liga - East 2019

Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
8/13/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 4Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Radunia Stężyca41%
×Draw26%
Polonia Bytom33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radunia Stężyca
1.43
Polonia Bytom
1.27

Radunia Stężyca creates 13% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 35 away

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.59
Polonia Bytom
1.26

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.27
Polonia Bytom
1.26

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par
Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Polonia Bytom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw
67%
Radunia Stężyca or Polonia Bytom
74%
Draw or Polonia Bytom
59%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
19%
Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
76%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
42%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
17%
Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
72%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
36%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
55%
Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.59 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.43

Polonia Bytom attack 1.26 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more
41%
level
26%
Polonia Bytom scores more
33%

Radunia Stężyca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Radunia Stężyca 1–1 Polonia Bytom

Radunia Stężyca and Polonia Bytom drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Gminny Stadion Sportowy in Stężyca.