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Polonia Bytom vs Radunia Stężyca — II Liga - East 2019

Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
FT
5 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
4/12/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 26Stadion Polonii Bytom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Polonia Bytom57%
×Draw21%
Radunia Stężyca22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Bytom
2.08
Radunia Stężyca
1.20

Polonia Bytom creates 73% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 61 away

creates per match

Polonia Bytom
2.38
Radunia Stężyca
1.25

allows per match

Polonia Bytom
1.15
Radunia Stężyca
1.79

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw
78%
Polonia Bytom or Radunia Stężyca
79%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
43%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
35%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
87%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
61%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
34%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
70%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
34%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
73%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 2.38 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.08

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.25 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more
57%
level
21%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
22%

Polonia Bytom at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Bytom vs Radunia Stężyca

Polonia Bytom beat Radunia Stężyca 5-3 in II Liga - East on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii Bytom in Bytom.