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Radunia Stężyca vs Pogoń Szczecin II — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
FT
2 – 0
Pogoń Szczecin II
Pogoń Szczecin II
4/7/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Radunia Stężyca69%
×Draw17%
Pogoń Szczecin II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radunia Stężyca
2.56
Pogoń Szczecin II
1.07

Radunia Stężyca creates 139% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 104 away

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca
3.50
Pogoń Szczecin II
1.58

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca
0.56
Pogoń Szczecin II
1.61

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par
Pogoń Szczecin II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Pogoń Szczecin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw
86%
Radunia Stężyca or Pogoń Szczecin II
83%
Draw or Pogoń Szczecin II
31%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
47%
Pogoń Szczecin II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
92%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
72%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
46%
Pogoń Szczecin II 1+ goals
66%
Pogoń Szczecin II 2+ goals
29%
Pogoń Szczecin II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
83%
Pogoń Szczecin II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Pogoń Szczecin II away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.61 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.50 + Pogoń Szczecin II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.56

Pogoń Szczecin II attack 1.58 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more
69%
level
17%
Pogoń Szczecin II scores more
14%

Radunia Stężyca at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radunia Stężyca vs Pogoń Szczecin II

Radunia Stężyca beat Pogoń Szczecin II 2-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Gminny Stadion Sportowy in Stężyca.