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Pogoń Szczecin II vs Radunia Stężyca — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Pogoń Szczecin II
Pogoń Szczecin II
FT
3 – 3
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
10/25/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pogoń Szczecin II28%
×Draw21%
Radunia Stężyca52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Szczecin II
1.57
Radunia Stężyca
2.20

Radunia Stężyca creates 40% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 17 away

creates per match

Pogoń Szczecin II
2.32
Radunia Stężyca
3.06

allows per match

Pogoń Szczecin II
1.34
Radunia Stężyca
0.82

finishing

Pogoń Szczecin II+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Szczecin II ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Pogoń Szczecin II or draw
48%
Pogoń Szczecin II or Radunia Stężyca
79%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
72%

Winning margin

Pogoń Szczecin II wins by 2+
13%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Pogoń Szczecin II 1+ goals
79%
Pogoń Szczecin II 2+ goals
46%
Pogoń Szczecin II 3+ goals
21%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
89%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
64%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Szczecin II (draw refunded)
35%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Szczecin II at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 3.06, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Szczecin II attack 2.32 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.57

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.06 + Pogoń Szczecin II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pogoń Szczecin II scores more
28%
level
21%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
52%

Radunia Stężyca at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogoń Szczecin II vs Radunia Stężyca

Pogoń Szczecin II and Radunia Stężyca drew 3-3 in III Liga - Group 2 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Szczecin.