Radunia Stężyca 2–1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Radunia Stężyca

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

8/15/2021

II Liga - East · Round 3Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Radunia Stężyca43%

×Draw25%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radunia StężycaExpected goals in this matchPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.28

Radunia Stężyca

1.52

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.28

Radunia Stężyca creates 19% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 34 away

1.59

creates per match

1.29

1.27

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca

1.59

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.29

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca

1.27

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw

68%

Radunia Stężyca or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

75%

Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

57%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+

21%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals

78%

Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals

45%

Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals

20%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals

72%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals

37%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)

57%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.59 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 1.29 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more

43%

level

25%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more

32%

Radunia Stężyca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff