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Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Radunia Stężyca — II Liga - East 2019

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
12/4/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 20Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki46%
×Draw24%
Radunia Stężyca30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
Radunia Stężyca
1.29

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 29% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 61 away

creates per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.55
Radunia Stężyca
1.25

allows per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.33
Radunia Stężyca
1.79

finishing

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw
70%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Radunia Stężyca
76%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
54%

Winning margin

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
24%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
81%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
50%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
23%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
72%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
37%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
61%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 1.55 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.67

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.25 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
46%
level
24%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
30%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Radunia Stężyca

Radunia Stężyca beat Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2-1 in II Liga - East on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Grodzisk Mazowiecki.