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Radunia Stężyca vs Elana Toruń — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
FT
2 – 1
Elana Toruń
Elana Toruń
11/21/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Radunia Stężyca66%
×Draw18%
Elana Toruń15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radunia Stężyca
2.38
Elana Toruń
1.06

Radunia Stężyca creates 125% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 78 away

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca
3.50
Elana Toruń
1.55

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca
0.56
Elana Toruń
1.27

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par
Elana Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Elana Toruń →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw
85%
Radunia Stężyca or Elana Toruń
82%
Draw or Elana Toruń
34%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
44%
Elana Toruń wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
91%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
68%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
42%
Elana Toruń 1+ goals
65%
Elana Toruń 2+ goals
29%
Elana Toruń 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
81%
Elana Toruń (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Elana Toruń away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.50 + Elana Toruń defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 2.38

Elana Toruń attack 1.55 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more
66%
level
18%
Elana Toruń scores more
15%

Radunia Stężyca at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Radunia Stężyca 2–1 Elana Toruń

Radunia Stężyca beat Elana Toruń 2-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Gminny Stadion Sportowy in Stężyca.