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Elana Toruń vs Radunia Stężyca — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Elana Toruń
Elana Toruń
FT
0 – 1
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
6/6/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Elana Toruń22%
×Draw21%
Radunia Stężyca58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elana Toruń
1.21
Radunia Stężyca
2.10

Radunia Stężyca creates 74% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

creates per match

Elana Toruń
1.60
Radunia Stężyca
3.06

allows per match

Elana Toruń
1.14
Radunia Stężyca
0.82

finishing

Elana Toruń+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elana Toruń ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Elana Toruń or draw
42%
Elana Toruń or Radunia Stężyca
79%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
78%

Winning margin

Elana Toruń wins by 2+
8%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Elana Toruń 1+ goals
70%
Elana Toruń 2+ goals
34%
Elana Toruń 3+ goals
12%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
88%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
62%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Elana Toruń (draw refunded)
27%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elana Toruń at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 3.06, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elana Toruń attack 1.60 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.21

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.06 + Elana Toruń defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Elana Toruń scores more
22%
level
21%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
58%

Radunia Stężyca at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elana Toruń vs Radunia Stężyca

Radunia Stężyca beat Elana Toruń 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego in Toruń.