Radunia Stężyca 1–2 Chojniczanka Chojnice

Radunia Stężyca

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Chojniczanka Chojnice

4/7/2024

II Liga - East · Round 27Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Radunia Stężyca38%

×Draw25%

Chojniczanka Chojnice36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radunia StężycaExpected goals in this matchChojniczanka Chojnice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.36

Radunia Stężyca

1.41

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 87 away

1.59

creates per match

1.45

1.27

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca

1.59

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.45

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca

1.27

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Chojniczanka Chojnice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw

64%

Radunia Stężyca or Chojniczanka Chojnice

75%

Draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice

62%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+

18%

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals

76%

Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals

41%

Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals

17%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals

74%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals

39%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)

52%

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.59 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.41

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.45 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more

38%

level

25%

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more

36%

Radunia Stężyca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff