Chojniczanka Chojnice 5–1 Radunia Stężyca

Chojniczanka Chojnice

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Radunia Stężyca

9/22/2023

II Liga - East · Round 10Stadion Miejski Chojnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice54%

×Draw23%

Radunia Stężyca23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chojniczanka ChojniceExpected goals in this matchRadunia Stężyca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.12

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.85

Radunia Stężyca

1.12

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 65% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 61 away

1.91

creates per match

1.25

0.99

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.91

Radunia Stężyca

1.25

allows per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice

0.99

Radunia Stężyca

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chojniczanka Chojnice ↓

Radunia Stężyca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Chojniczanka Chojnice or draw

77%

Chojniczanka Chojnice or Radunia Stężyca

77%

Draw or Radunia Stężyca

46%

Winning margin

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+

31%

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals

84%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals

55%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals

28%

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals

67%

Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals

31%

Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)

70%

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chojniczanka Chojnice at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.91 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.85

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.25 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more

54%

level

23%

Radunia Stężyca scores more

23%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff