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Radunia Stężyca vs Bełchatów — II Liga - East 2019

Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
CANC
00:00
Bełchatów
Bełchatów
5/21/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Radunia Stężyca63%
×Draw21%
Bełchatów15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radunia Stężyca
1.94
Bełchatów
0.83

Radunia Stężyca creates 134% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 10 away

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.59
Bełchatów
0.40

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.27
Bełchatów
2.30

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par
Bełchatów+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Bełchatów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw
85%
Radunia Stężyca or Bełchatów
79%
Draw or Bełchatów
37%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
38%
Bełchatów wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
86%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
58%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
30%
Bełchatów 1+ goals
56%
Bełchatów 2+ goals
20%
Bełchatów 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
80%
Bełchatów (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Bełchatów away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.59 + Bełchatów defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.94

Bełchatów attack 0.40 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more
63%
level
21%
Bełchatów scores more
15%

Radunia Stężyca at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Radunia Stężyca face Bełchatów (II Liga - East)

II Liga - East returns with Radunia Stężyca hosting Bełchatów. Match starts May 21, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.