Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bełchatów vs Radunia Stężyca — II Liga - East 2019

Bełchatów
Bełchatów
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
11/13/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 17Stadion GKS-u

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bełchatów48%
×Draw26%
Radunia Stężyca26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bełchatów
1.54
Radunia Stężyca
1.07

Bełchatów creates 44% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 61 away

creates per match

Bełchatów
1.30
Radunia Stężyca
1.25

allows per match

Bełchatów
0.90
Radunia Stężyca
1.79

finishing

Bełchatów+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bełchatów ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bełchatów or draw
74%
Bełchatów or Radunia Stężyca
74%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
52%

Winning margin

Bełchatów wins by 2+
24%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bełchatów 1+ goals
79%
Bełchatów 2+ goals
45%
Bełchatów 3+ goals
20%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
66%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
29%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bełchatów (draw refunded)
65%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bełchatów at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bełchatów attack 1.30 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.25 + Bełchatów defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bełchatów scores more
48%
level
26%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
26%

Bełchatów at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bełchatów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bełchatów vs Radunia Stężyca

Radunia Stężyca beat Bełchatów 2-0 in II Liga - East on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion GKS-u in Bełchatów.