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Radunia Stężyca vs Bałtyk Gdynia — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
FT
1 – 0
Bałtyk Gdynia
Bałtyk Gdynia
10/3/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Radunia Stężyca80%
×Draw13%
Bałtyk Gdynia7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radunia Stężyca
2.75
Bałtyk Gdynia
0.70

Radunia Stężyca creates 293% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 51 away

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca
3.50
Bałtyk Gdynia
0.84

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca
0.56
Bałtyk Gdynia
2.00

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par
Bałtyk Gdynia+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Bałtyk Gdynia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw
93%
Radunia Stężyca or Bałtyk Gdynia
87%
Draw or Bałtyk Gdynia
20%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
59%
Bałtyk Gdynia wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
93%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
75%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
51%
Bałtyk Gdynia 1+ goals
50%
Bałtyk Gdynia 2+ goals
16%
Bałtyk Gdynia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
92%
Bałtyk Gdynia (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Bałtyk Gdynia away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.00 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.50 + Bałtyk Gdynia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Bałtyk Gdynia attack 0.84 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more
80%
level
13%
Bałtyk Gdynia scores more
7%

Radunia Stężyca at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Radunia Stężyca 1–0 Bałtyk Gdynia

Radunia Stężyca beat Bałtyk Gdynia 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Gminny Stadion Sportowy in Stężyca.