Bałtyk Gdynia 3–6 Radunia Stężyca: Result & Stats

Bałtyk Gdynia

FT

3 – 6

Radunia Stężyca

5/15/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Narodowy Stadion Rugby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bałtyk Gdynia19%

×Draw19%

Radunia Stężyca61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bałtyk GdyniaExpected goals in this matchRadunia Stężyca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

2.30

Bałtyk Gdynia

1.22

Radunia Stężyca

2.30

Radunia Stężyca creates 89% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

1.62

creates per match

3.06

1.54

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Bałtyk Gdynia

1.62

Radunia Stężyca

3.06

allows per match

Bałtyk Gdynia

1.54

Radunia Stężyca

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bałtyk Gdynia+0.00on par

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bałtyk Gdynia ↓

Radunia Stężyca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Bałtyk Gdynia or draw

39%

Bałtyk Gdynia or Radunia Stężyca

81%

Draw or Radunia Stężyca

81%

Winning margin

Bałtyk Gdynia wins by 2+

8%

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Bałtyk Gdynia 1+ goals

70%

Bałtyk Gdynia 2+ goals

34%

Bałtyk Gdynia 3+ goals

12%

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals

90%

Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals

67%

Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Bałtyk Gdynia (draw refunded)

24%

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bałtyk Gdynia at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.54 · 50 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 3.06, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bałtyk Gdynia attack 1.62 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.22

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.06 + Bałtyk Gdynia defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bałtyk Gdynia scores more

19%

level

19%

Radunia Stężyca scores more

61%

Radunia Stężyca at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff