Radomsko 2–2 Huragan Morąg: Result & Stats

Radomsko

FT

2 – 2

Huragan Morąg

5/1/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Stadion RKS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Radomsko53%

×Draw22%

Huragan Morąg25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RadomskoExpected goals in this matchHuragan Morąg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.27

Radomsko

1.93

Huragan Morąg

1.27

Radomsko creates 52% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.63

creates per match

1.22

1.32

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Radomsko

1.63

Huragan Morąg

1.22

allows per match

Radomsko

1.32

Huragan Morąg

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radomsko+0.00on par

Huragan Morąg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomsko ↓

Huragan Morąg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Radomsko or draw

75%

Radomsko or Huragan Morąg

78%

Draw or Huragan Morąg

47%

Winning margin

Radomsko wins by 2+

30%

Huragan Morąg wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Radomsko 1+ goals

85%

Radomsko 2+ goals

57%

Radomsko 3+ goals

30%

Huragan Morąg 1+ goals

72%

Huragan Morąg 2+ goals

36%

Huragan Morąg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Radomsko (draw refunded)

68%

Huragan Morąg (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomsko at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Huragan Morąg away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomsko attack 1.63 + Huragan Morąg defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.93

Huragan Morąg attack 1.22 + Radomsko defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Radomsko scores more

53%

level

22%

Huragan Morąg scores more

25%

Radomsko at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Radomsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff