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Huragan Morąg vs Radomsko — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Huragan Morąg
Huragan Morąg
FT
1 – 1
Radomsko
Radomsko
8/15/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Stadion Huragan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Huragan Morąg29%
×Draw23%
Radomsko48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huragan Morąg
1.36
Radomsko
1.79

Radomsko creates 32% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

Huragan Morąg
1.06
Radomsko
1.33

allows per match

Huragan Morąg
2.25
Radomsko
1.67

finishing

Huragan Morąg+0.00on par
Radomsko+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huragan Morąg ↓

Radomsko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Huragan Morąg or draw
52%
Huragan Morąg or Radomsko
77%
Draw or Radomsko
71%

Winning margin

Huragan Morąg wins by 2+
13%
Radomsko wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Huragan Morąg 1+ goals
74%
Huragan Morąg 2+ goals
39%
Huragan Morąg 3+ goals
16%
Radomsko 1+ goals
83%
Radomsko 2+ goals
53%
Radomsko 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Huragan Morąg (draw refunded)
38%
Radomsko (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huragan Morąg at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

Radomsko away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huragan Morąg attack 1.06 + Radomsko defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.36

Radomsko attack 1.33 + Huragan Morąg defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Huragan Morąg scores more
29%
level
23%
Radomsko scores more
48%

Radomsko at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Radomsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huragan Morąg vs Radomsko

Huragan Morąg and Radomsko drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Huragan in Morąg.