Radomlje 6–1 Dravograd: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Radomlje

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Dravograd

A. Pišek 86'

D. Laban 81'

M. Ahačič 47'

S. Varga 22'

M. Zabukovnik 20'

R. Jazbec 16'

P. Kogelnik 90'

9/1/2019

2. SNL · Round 6Športni park Radomlje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Radomlje72%

×Draw16%

Dravograd12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RadomljeExpected goals in this matchDravograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.02

Radomlje

2.67

Dravograd

1.02

Radomlje creates 162% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

2.33

creates per match

1.10

0.95

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Radomlje

2.33

Dravograd

1.10

allows per match

Radomlje

0.95

Dravograd

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radomlje+0.00on par

Dravograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomlje ↓

Dravograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Radomlje or draw

88%

Radomlje or Dravograd

84%

Draw or Dravograd

28%

Winning margin

Radomlje wins by 2+

50%

Dravograd wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Radomlje 1+ goals

93%

Radomlje 2+ goals

74%

Radomlje 3+ goals

49%

Dravograd 1+ goals

64%

Dravograd 2+ goals

27%

Dravograd 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Radomlje (draw refunded)

85%

Dravograd (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomlje at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Dravograd away — creates 1.10, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomlje attack 2.33 + Dravograd defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Dravograd attack 1.10 + Radomlje defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Radomlje scores more

72%

level

16%

Dravograd scores more

12%

Radomlje at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Radomlje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

20'

22'

46'

46'

47'

65'

65'

S. Nuhanović← M. Zabukovnik

69'

A. Pešl← M. Verstovšek

75'

81'

86'

90'

Radomlje

Dravograd

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Ahačič

⚽

Varga

Cerar

Manager: O. Drobne

65'▲L. Gojak←▼M. Ahačič

65'▲S. Nuhanović←▼M. Zabukovnik

75'▲D. Laban←▼L. Guček

Radomlje substitutes

GojakNuhanovićLabanMarinšekBrolihVrandečičCerar

Manager: B. Kus

46'▲S. Dobaj←▼E. Adomako

46'▲J. Ferk←▼D. Krajnc

69'▲A. Pešl←▼M. Verstovšek

Dravograd substitutes

DobajFerkPešlGluhovičBevkBrzinPečnik