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Dravograd vs Radomlje — 2. SNL 2019

Dravograd
Dravograd
CANC
00:00
Radomlje
Radomlje
3/14/20202. SNL2. SNL · Round 21Športni center Dravograd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Dravograd20%
×Draw21%
Radomlje60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dravograd
1.13
Radomlje
2.13

Radomlje creates 88% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dravograd
1.20
Radomlje
2.37

allows per match

Dravograd
1.90
Radomlje
1.05

finishing

Dravograd+0.00on par
Radomlje+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dravograd ↓

Radomlje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dravograd or draw
40%
Dravograd or Radomlje
79%
Draw or Radomlje
80%

Winning margin

Dravograd wins by 2+
7%
Radomlje wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Dravograd 1+ goals
68%
Dravograd 2+ goals
31%
Dravograd 3+ goals
11%
Radomlje 1+ goals
88%
Radomlje 2+ goals
63%
Radomlje 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Dravograd (draw refunded)
25%
Radomlje (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dravograd at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Radomlje away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dravograd attack 1.20 + Radomlje defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Radomlje attack 2.37 + Dravograd defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dravograd scores more
20%
level
21%
Radomlje scores more
60%

Radomlje at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Radomlje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dravograd vs Radomlje — Match Preview

Dravograd face Radomlje on March 14, 2020 in this 2. SNL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dravograd host Radomlje at Športni center Dravograd.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.