Radomiak Radom 0–4 Pogon Szczecin: Result & Stats

Radomiak Radom

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Pogon Szczecin

2/16/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 21Stadion Radomiaka Radom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Radomiak Radom49%

×Draw25%

Pogon Szczecin25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radomiak RadomExpected goals in this matchPogon Szczecin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.04

Radomiak Radom

1.55

Pogon Szczecin

1.04

Radomiak Radom creates 49% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

1.66

creates per match

1.23

0.86

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Radomiak Radom

1.66

Pogon Szczecin

1.23

allows per match

Radomiak Radom

0.86

Pogon Szczecin

1.45

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

Radomiak Radom+0.34scores more

Pogon Szczecin-0.36scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomiak Radom ↓

Pogon Szczecin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Radomiak Radom or draw

75%

Radomiak Radom or Pogon Szczecin

75%

Draw or Pogon Szczecin

51%

Winning margin

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+

25%

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals

79%

Radomiak Radom 2+ goals

46%

Radomiak Radom 3+ goals

20%

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals

65%

Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals

28%

Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)

66%

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomiak Radom at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.86 · 13 matches

Pogon Szczecin away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.45 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomiak Radom attack 1.66 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.55

Pogon Szczecin attack 1.23 + Radomiak Radom defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Radomiak Radom scores more

49%

level

25%

Pogon Szczecin scores more

25%

Radomiak Radom at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Radomiak Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff