Pogon Szczecin 0–1 Radomiak Radom: Result & Stats

Pogon Szczecin

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Radomiak Radom

11/8/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 15Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Pogon Szczecin60%

×Draw20%

Radomiak Radom20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogon SzczecinExpected goals in this matchRadomiak Radom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.18

Pogon Szczecin

2.21

Radomiak Radom

1.18

Pogon Szczecin creates 87% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

2.17

creates per match

0.85

1.50

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Pogon Szczecin

2.17

Radomiak Radom

0.85

allows per match

Pogon Szczecin

1.50

Radomiak Radom

2.26

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Pogon Szczecin-0.09on par

Radomiak Radom+0.07on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Szczecin ↓

Radomiak Radom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Pogon Szczecin or draw

80%

Pogon Szczecin or Radomiak Radom

80%

Draw or Radomiak Radom

40%

Winning margin

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+

38%

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals

89%

Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals

65%

Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals

38%

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals

69%

Radomiak Radom 2+ goals

33%

Radomiak Radom 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)

76%

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Szczecin at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 13 matches

Radomiak Radom away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.26 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Szczecin attack 2.17 + Radomiak Radom defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.21

Radomiak Radom attack 0.85 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Pogon Szczecin scores more

60%

level

20%

Radomiak Radom scores more

20%

Pogon Szczecin at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff