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Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki 1923 — Super Liga 2026

Radnik Surdulica
Radnik Surdulica
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Radnicki 1923
Radnicki 1923
3/8/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 24EFBET Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Radnik Surdulica41%
×Draw27%
Radnicki 192332%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnik Surdulica
1.33
Radnicki 1923
1.16

Radnik Surdulica creates 15% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 94 away

creates per match

Radnik Surdulica
1.14
Radnicki 1923
1.15

allows per match

Radnik Surdulica
1.17
Radnicki 1923
1.52

finishing

Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par
Radnicki 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Surdulica ↓

Radnicki 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Radnik Surdulica or draw
68%
Radnik Surdulica or Radnicki 1923
73%
Draw or Radnicki 1923
59%

Winning margin

Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+
19%
Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals
74%
Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals
38%
Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals
15%
Radnicki 1923 1+ goals
69%
Radnicki 1923 2+ goals
32%
Radnicki 1923 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)
56%
Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Surdulica at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

Radnicki 1923 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.52 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Surdulica attack 1.14 + Radnicki 1923 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.33

Radnicki 1923 attack 1.15 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Radnik Surdulica scores more
41%
level
27%
Radnicki 1923 scores more
32%

Radnik Surdulica at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Radnik Surdulica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki 1923

Radnicki 1923 beat Radnik Surdulica 1-0 in Super Liga on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at EFBET Stadion in Surdulica.