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Radnicki 1923 vs Radnik Surdulica — Super Liga 2026

Radnicki 1923
Radnicki 1923
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Radnik Surdulica
Radnik Surdulica
12/20/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 9Stadion Čika Dača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Radnicki 192345%
×Draw26%
Radnik Surdulica29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki 1923
1.46
Radnik Surdulica
1.10

Radnicki 1923 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 128 away

creates per match

Radnicki 1923
1.44
Radnik Surdulica
0.92

allows per match

Radnicki 1923
1.28
Radnik Surdulica
1.48

finishing

Radnicki 1923+0.00on par
Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki 1923 ↓

Radnik Surdulica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Radnicki 1923 or draw
71%
Radnicki 1923 or Radnik Surdulica
74%
Draw or Radnik Surdulica
55%

Winning margin

Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+
22%
Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Radnicki 1923 1+ goals
77%
Radnicki 1923 2+ goals
43%
Radnicki 1923 3+ goals
18%
Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals
67%
Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals
30%
Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)
61%
Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki 1923 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.28 · 93 matches

Radnik Surdulica away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.48 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki 1923 attack 1.44 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.46

Radnik Surdulica attack 0.92 + Radnicki 1923 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Radnicki 1923 scores more
45%
level
26%
Radnik Surdulica scores more
29%

Radnicki 1923 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Radnicki 1923 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnicki 1923 vs Radnik Surdulica

Radnicki 1923 beat Radnik Surdulica 1-0 in Super Liga on December 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Čika Dača in Kragujevac.