Radnik Surdulica 2–1 Napredak: Result & Stats

Radnik Surdulica

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Napredak

2/21/2026

Super Liga · Round 24EFBET Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Radnik Surdulica46%

×Draw27%

Napredak27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnik SurdulicaExpected goals in this matchNapredak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.00

Radnik Surdulica

1.40

Napredak

1.00

Radnik Surdulica creates 40% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 147 away

1.14

creates per match

0.84

1.17

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Radnik Surdulica

1.14

Napredak

0.84

allows per match

Radnik Surdulica

1.17

Napredak

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par

Napredak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Surdulica ↓

Napredak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Radnik Surdulica or draw

73%

Radnik Surdulica or Napredak

73%

Draw or Napredak

54%

Winning margin

Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+

22%

Napredak wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals

75%

Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals

41%

Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals

17%

Napredak 1+ goals

63%

Napredak 2+ goals

26%

Napredak 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)

63%

Napredak (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Surdulica at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

Napredak away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.66 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Surdulica attack 1.14 + Napredak defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Napredak attack 0.84 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Radnik Surdulica scores more

46%

level

27%

Napredak scores more

27%

Radnik Surdulica at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Radnik Surdulica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff