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Napredak vs Radnik Surdulica — Super Liga 2026

Napredak
Napredak
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Radnik Surdulica
Radnik Surdulica
9/19/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 9Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Napredak42%
×Draw28%
Radnik Surdulica31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napredak
1.29
Radnik Surdulica
1.06

Napredak creates 22% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 128 away

creates per match

Napredak
1.10
Radnik Surdulica
0.92

allows per match

Napredak
1.21
Radnik Surdulica
1.48

finishing

Napredak+0.00on par
Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napredak ↓

Radnik Surdulica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Napredak or draw
69%
Napredak or Radnik Surdulica
72%
Draw or Radnik Surdulica
58%

Winning margin

Napredak wins by 2+
19%
Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Napredak 1+ goals
72%
Napredak 2+ goals
37%
Napredak 3+ goals
14%
Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals
65%
Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals
29%
Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Napredak (draw refunded)
58%
Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napredak at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.21 · 145 matches

Radnik Surdulica away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.48 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napredak attack 1.10 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

Radnik Surdulica attack 0.92 + Napredak defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Napredak scores more
42%
level
28%
Radnik Surdulica scores more
31%

Napredak at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Napredak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Napredak 1–3 Radnik Surdulica

Radnik Surdulica beat Napredak 3-1 in Super Liga on September 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Mladost in Kruševac.