Radnik Surdulica 1–1 Mladost Novi Sad

Radnik Surdulica

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mladost Novi Sad

5/15/2023

Super Liga · Relegation Round - 5EFBET Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Radnik Surdulica42%

×Draw30%

Mladost Novi Sad28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnik SurdulicaExpected goals in this matchMladost Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.91

Radnik Surdulica

1.17

Mladost Novi Sad

0.91

Radnik Surdulica creates 29% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 20 away

1.14

creates per match

0.65

1.17

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Radnik Surdulica

1.14

Mladost Novi Sad

0.65

allows per match

Radnik Surdulica

1.17

Mladost Novi Sad

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Surdulica ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Radnik Surdulica or draw

72%

Radnik Surdulica or Mladost Novi Sad

70%

Draw or Mladost Novi Sad

58%

Winning margin

Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+

18%

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals

69%

Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals

33%

Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals

11%

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

60%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

23%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)

60%

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Surdulica at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Surdulica attack 1.14 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.65 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Radnik Surdulica scores more

42%

level

30%

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

28%

Radnik Surdulica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Radnik Surdulica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff