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Mladost Novi Sad vs Radnik Surdulica — Prva Liga 2018

Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Radnik Surdulica
Radnik Surdulica
4/23/2025Prva LigaPrva Liga · Championship Round - 2GAT Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad33%
×Draw29%
Radnik Surdulica38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Novi Sad
1.04
Radnik Surdulica
1.14

Radnik Surdulica creates 10% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 18 away

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad
1.29
Radnik Surdulica
1.39

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad
0.89
Radnik Surdulica
0.78

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par
Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

Radnik Surdulica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw
62%
Mladost Novi Sad or Radnik Surdulica
71%
Draw or Radnik Surdulica
67%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
13%
Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
65%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
28%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
9%
Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals
68%
Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals
32%
Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
46%
Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.89 · 56 matches

Radnik Surdulica away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.29 + Radnik Surdulica defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.04

Radnik Surdulica attack 1.39 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more
33%
level
29%
Radnik Surdulica scores more
38%

Radnik Surdulica at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Radnik Surdulica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Novi Sad vs Radnik Surdulica

Mladost Novi Sad beat Radnik Surdulica 2-1 in Prva Liga on April 23, 2025.

The match was played at GAT Arena in Novi Sad.