Radnik Surdulica vs IMT Novi Beograd — Super Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 55+ matches
Radnik Surdulica41%
IMT Novi Beograd33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Radnik Surdulica creates 15% more chances
Season form · 127 home / 55 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Radnik Surdulica ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Radnik Surdulica at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches
IMT Novi Beograd away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 55 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Radnik Surdulica attack 1.14 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.37
IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.20 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Radnik Surdulica at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Radnik Surdulica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
FK Crvena Zvezda
Radnicki NIS
FK Partizan
Cukaricki
Mladost Lucani
Napredak
Vojvodina
Proleter Novi SAD
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVRadnik Surdulica
FK Vozdovac
Macva
Backa
RAD
Dinamo Vranje
ZemunIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Radnik Surdulica host IMT Novi Beograd on Friday, 26 September 2025 at 16:00. The match is part of the Super Liga 2018/2019 season.
Super Liga: Radnik Surdulica 2–0 IMT Novi Beograd
Radnik Surdulica beat IMT Novi Beograd 2-0 in Super Liga on September 26, 2025.
Goals: V. Bogdanovic (4'), S. Tremoulet (27').
IMT Novi Beograd controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 16.
The match was played at EFBET Stadion in Surdulica.