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Radnik Surdulica vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV — Super Liga 2026

Radnik Surdulica
Radnik Surdulica
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
8/7/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 2Gradski Stadion Čair

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Radnik Surdulica43%
×Draw27%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnik Surdulica
1.33
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.07

Radnik Surdulica creates 24% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 145 away

creates per match

Radnik Surdulica
1.14
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
0.97

allows per match

Radnik Surdulica
1.17
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.53

finishing

Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Surdulica ↓

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Radnik Surdulica or draw
70%
Radnik Surdulica or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
73%
Draw or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
57%

Winning margin

Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+
20%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals
74%
Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals
38%
Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals
15%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1+ goals
66%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2+ goals
29%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)
59%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Surdulica at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Surdulica attack 1.14 + FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV attack 0.97 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Radnik Surdulica scores more
43%
level
27%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV scores more
30%

Radnik Surdulica at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Radnik Surdulica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnik Surdulica vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Radnik Surdulica beat FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2-0 in Super Liga on August 7, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Čair in Niš.