FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1–3 Radnik Surdulica

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Radnik Surdulica

3/20/2026

Super Liga · Round 28Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV42%

×Draw26%

Radnik Surdulica32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVExpected goals in this matchRadnik Surdulica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.18

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

1.40

Radnik Surdulica

1.18

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV creates 19% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 128 away

1.32

creates per match

0.92

1.43

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

1.32

Radnik Surdulica

0.92

allows per match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

1.43

Radnik Surdulica

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV+0.00on par

Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ↓

Radnik Surdulica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV or draw

68%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV or Radnik Surdulica

74%

Draw or Radnik Surdulica

58%

Winning margin

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV wins by 2+

20%

Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1+ goals

75%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2+ goals

41%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3+ goals

17%

Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals

69%

Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals

33%

Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV (draw refunded)

57%

Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 145 matches

Radnik Surdulica away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.48 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV attack 1.32 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40

Radnik Surdulica attack 0.92 + FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV scores more

42%

level

26%

Radnik Surdulica scores more

32%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff