Radnik Hadžići 2–0 Radnički Lukavac: Result & Stats

Radnik Hadžići

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Radnički Lukavac

9/3/2022

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 4Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Radnik Hadžići55%

×Draw23%

Radnički Lukavac22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnik HadžićiExpected goals in this matchRadnički Lukavac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.08

Radnik Hadžići

1.86

Radnički Lukavac

1.08

Radnik Hadžići creates 72% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 30 away

1.16

creates per match

1.20

0.96

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Radnik Hadžići

1.16

Radnički Lukavac

1.20

allows per match

Radnik Hadžići

0.96

Radnički Lukavac

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnik Hadžići+0.00on par

Radnički Lukavac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Hadžići ↓

Radnički Lukavac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Radnik Hadžići or draw

78%

Radnik Hadžići or Radnički Lukavac

77%

Draw or Radnički Lukavac

45%

Winning margin

Radnik Hadžići wins by 2+

32%

Radnički Lukavac wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Radnik Hadžići 1+ goals

84%

Radnik Hadžići 2+ goals

55%

Radnik Hadžići 3+ goals

28%

Radnički Lukavac 1+ goals

66%

Radnički Lukavac 2+ goals

29%

Radnički Lukavac 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Radnik Hadžići (draw refunded)

72%

Radnički Lukavac (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Hadžići at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 96 matches

Radnički Lukavac away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Hadžići attack 1.16 + Radnički Lukavac defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.86

Radnički Lukavac attack 1.20 + Radnik Hadžići defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Radnik Hadžići scores more

55%

level

23%

Radnički Lukavac scores more

22%

Radnik Hadžići at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Radnik Hadžići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff