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Radnički Lukavac vs Radnik Hadžići — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Radnički Lukavac
Radnički Lukavac
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Radnik Hadžići
Radnik Hadžići
5/10/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 25Stadion Josik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Radnički Lukavac28%
×Draw25%
Radnik Hadžići47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Lukavac
1.17
Radnik Hadžići
1.58

Radnik Hadžići creates 35% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 94 away

creates per match

Radnički Lukavac
0.75
Radnik Hadžići
0.97

allows per match

Radnički Lukavac
2.18
Radnik Hadžići
1.59

finishing

Radnički Lukavac+0.00on par
Radnik Hadžići+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Lukavac ↓

Radnik Hadžići →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Radnički Lukavac or draw
53%
Radnički Lukavac or Radnik Hadžići
75%
Draw or Radnik Hadžići
72%

Winning margin

Radnički Lukavac wins by 2+
11%
Radnik Hadžići wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Radnički Lukavac 1+ goals
69%
Radnički Lukavac 2+ goals
33%
Radnički Lukavac 3+ goals
11%
Radnik Hadžići 1+ goals
79%
Radnik Hadžići 2+ goals
47%
Radnik Hadžići 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Radnički Lukavac (draw refunded)
38%
Radnik Hadžići (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Lukavac at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.18 · 28 matches

Radnik Hadžići away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Lukavac attack 0.75 + Radnik Hadžići defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.17

Radnik Hadžići attack 0.97 + Radnički Lukavac defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Radnički Lukavac scores more
28%
level
25%
Radnik Hadžići scores more
47%

Radnik Hadžići at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Radnik Hadžići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnički Lukavac vs Radnik Hadžići

Radnik Hadžići beat Radnički Lukavac 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Josik in Lukavac.