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Radnik Hadžići vs Gornji Rahić — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Radnik Hadžići
Radnik Hadžići
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gornji Rahić
Gornji Rahić
8/12/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 1Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Radnik Hadžići55%
×Draw23%
Gornji Rahić22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnik Hadžići
1.82
Gornji Rahić
1.08

Radnik Hadžići creates 69% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 29 away

creates per match

Radnik Hadžići
1.16
Gornji Rahić
1.21

allows per match

Radnik Hadžići
0.96
Gornji Rahić
2.48

finishing

Radnik Hadžići+0.00on par
Gornji Rahić+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Hadžići ↓

Gornji Rahić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Radnik Hadžići or draw
78%
Radnik Hadžići or Gornji Rahić
77%
Draw or Gornji Rahić
45%

Winning margin

Radnik Hadžići wins by 2+
31%
Gornji Rahić wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Radnik Hadžići 1+ goals
84%
Radnik Hadžići 2+ goals
54%
Radnik Hadžići 3+ goals
27%
Gornji Rahić 1+ goals
66%
Gornji Rahić 2+ goals
29%
Gornji Rahić 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Radnik Hadžići (draw refunded)
71%
Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Hadžići at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 96 matches

Gornji Rahić away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Hadžići attack 1.16 + Gornji Rahić defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.82

Gornji Rahić attack 1.21 + Radnik Hadžići defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Radnik Hadžići scores more
55%
level
23%
Gornji Rahić scores more
22%

Radnik Hadžići at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Radnik Hadžići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnik Hadžići vs Gornji Rahić

Radnik Hadžići beat Gornji Rahić 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Hadžići.