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Gornji Rahić vs Radnik Hadžići — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Gornji Rahić
Gornji Rahić
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Radnik Hadžići
Radnik Hadžići
3/10/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 16Stadion Harf Arena Gornji Rahić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gornji Rahić56%
×Draw24%
Radnik Hadžići20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gornji Rahić
1.71
Radnik Hadžići
0.92

Gornji Rahić creates 86% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 94 away

creates per match

Gornji Rahić
1.83
Radnik Hadžići
0.97

allows per match

Gornji Rahić
0.86
Radnik Hadžići
1.59

finishing

Gornji Rahić+0.00on par
Radnik Hadžići+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gornji Rahić ↓

Radnik Hadžići →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gornji Rahić or draw
80%
Gornji Rahić or Radnik Hadžići
76%
Draw or Radnik Hadžići
44%

Winning margin

Gornji Rahić wins by 2+
31%
Radnik Hadžići wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gornji Rahić 1+ goals
82%
Gornji Rahić 2+ goals
51%
Gornji Rahić 3+ goals
24%
Radnik Hadžići 1+ goals
60%
Radnik Hadžići 2+ goals
23%
Radnik Hadžići 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)
73%
Radnik Hadžići (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gornji Rahić at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

Radnik Hadžići away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gornji Rahić attack 1.83 + Radnik Hadžići defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.71

Radnik Hadžići attack 0.97 + Gornji Rahić defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gornji Rahić scores more
56%
level
24%
Radnik Hadžići scores more
20%

Gornji Rahić at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gornji Rahić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gornji Rahić vs Radnik Hadžići

Gornji Rahić beat Radnik Hadžići 4-0 in 1st League - FBiH on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Harf Arena Gornji Rahić in Gornji Rahić.