Radnik Bijeljina 1–0 Rudar Prijedor: Result & Stats

Radnik Bijeljina

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rudar Prijedor

4/25/2026

Premijer Liga · Round 31Gradski stadion Bijeljina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Radnik Bijeljina52%

×Draw27%

Rudar Prijedor22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnik BijeljinaExpected goals in this matchRudar Prijedor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.83

Radnik Bijeljina

1.45

Rudar Prijedor

0.83

Radnik Bijeljina creates 75% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 35 away

1.27

creates per match

0.66

1.00

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Radnik Bijeljina

1.27

Rudar Prijedor

0.66

allows per match

Radnik Bijeljina

1.00

Rudar Prijedor

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnik Bijeljina+0.00on par

Rudar Prijedor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Bijeljina ↓

Rudar Prijedor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Radnik Bijeljina or draw

78%

Radnik Bijeljina or Rudar Prijedor

73%

Draw or Rudar Prijedor

48%

Winning margin

Radnik Bijeljina wins by 2+

26%

Rudar Prijedor wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Radnik Bijeljina 1+ goals

77%

Radnik Bijeljina 2+ goals

42%

Radnik Bijeljina 3+ goals

18%

Rudar Prijedor 1+ goals

56%

Rudar Prijedor 2+ goals

20%

Rudar Prijedor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Radnik Bijeljina (draw refunded)

71%

Rudar Prijedor (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Bijeljina at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.00 · 77 matches

Rudar Prijedor away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.63 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Bijeljina attack 1.27 + Rudar Prijedor defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.45

Rudar Prijedor attack 0.66 + Radnik Bijeljina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Radnik Bijeljina scores more

52%

level

27%

Rudar Prijedor scores more

22%

Radnik Bijeljina at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Radnik Bijeljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff