Radnik Bijeljina 1–0 Olimpik Sarajevo

Radnik Bijeljina

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Olimpik Sarajevo

5/16/2021

Premijer Liga · Round 31Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Radnik Bijeljina60%

×Draw25%

Olimpik Sarajevo15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnik BijeljinaExpected goals in this matchOlimpik Sarajevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.65

Radnik Bijeljina

1.57

Olimpik Sarajevo

0.65

Radnik Bijeljina creates 142% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

1.27

creates per match

0.29

1.00

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Radnik Bijeljina

1.27

Olimpik Sarajevo

0.29

allows per match

Radnik Bijeljina

1.00

Olimpik Sarajevo

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnik Bijeljina+0.00on par

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Bijeljina ↓

Olimpik Sarajevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Radnik Bijeljina or draw

85%

Radnik Bijeljina or Olimpik Sarajevo

75%

Draw or Olimpik Sarajevo

40%

Winning margin

Radnik Bijeljina wins by 2+

32%

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Radnik Bijeljina 1+ goals

79%

Radnik Bijeljina 2+ goals

46%

Radnik Bijeljina 3+ goals

21%

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals

48%

Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals

14%

Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Radnik Bijeljina (draw refunded)

80%

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Bijeljina at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.00 · 77 matches

Olimpik Sarajevo away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Bijeljina attack 1.27 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 0.29 + Radnik Bijeljina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Radnik Bijeljina scores more

60%

level

25%

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more

15%

Radnik Bijeljina at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Radnik Bijeljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff