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Olimpik Sarajevo vs Radnik Bijeljina — Premijer Liga 2019

Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Radnik Bijeljina
Radnik Bijeljina
12/12/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 19Stadion Otoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olimpik Sarajevo44%
×Draw26%
Radnik Bijeljina31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.47
Radnik Bijeljina
1.19

Olimpik Sarajevo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 80 away

creates per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.13
Radnik Bijeljina
0.84

allows per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.53
Radnik Bijeljina
1.81

finishing

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par
Radnik Bijeljina+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Sarajevo ↓

Radnik Bijeljina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Olimpik Sarajevo or draw
69%
Olimpik Sarajevo or Radnik Bijeljina
74%
Draw or Radnik Bijeljina
56%

Winning margin

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
21%
Radnik Bijeljina wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
77%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
43%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
18%
Radnik Bijeljina 1+ goals
70%
Radnik Bijeljina 2+ goals
33%
Radnik Bijeljina 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
59%
Radnik Bijeljina (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Sarajevo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Radnik Bijeljina away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.81 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 1.13 + Radnik Bijeljina defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.47

Radnik Bijeljina attack 0.84 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
44%
level
26%
Radnik Bijeljina scores more
31%

Olimpik Sarajevo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Olimpik Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpik Sarajevo vs Radnik Bijeljina

Olimpik Sarajevo beat Radnik Bijeljina 1-0 in Premijer Liga on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Otoka in Sarajevo.