Radnik Bijeljina 1–0 Leotar: Result & Stats

Radnik Bijeljina

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leotar

3/31/2024

1st League - RS · RS - 23Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Radnik Bijeljina63%

×Draw23%

Leotar14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnik BijeljinaExpected goals in this matchLeotar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.67

Radnik Bijeljina

1.74

Leotar

0.67

Radnik Bijeljina creates 160% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 63 away

2.18

creates per match

0.89

0.44

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Radnik Bijeljina

2.18

Leotar

0.89

allows per match

Radnik Bijeljina

0.44

Leotar

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnik Bijeljina+0.00on par

Leotar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Bijeljina ↓

Leotar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Radnik Bijeljina or draw

86%

Radnik Bijeljina or Leotar

77%

Draw or Leotar

37%

Winning margin

Radnik Bijeljina wins by 2+

36%

Leotar wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Radnik Bijeljina 1+ goals

82%

Radnik Bijeljina 2+ goals

52%

Radnik Bijeljina 3+ goals

25%

Leotar 1+ goals

49%

Leotar 2+ goals

15%

Leotar 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Radnik Bijeljina (draw refunded)

82%

Leotar (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Bijeljina at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.44 · 34 matches

Leotar away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Bijeljina attack 2.18 + Leotar defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.74

Leotar attack 0.89 + Radnik Bijeljina defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Radnik Bijeljina scores more

63%

level

23%

Leotar scores more

14%

Radnik Bijeljina at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Radnik Bijeljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff