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Leotar vs Radnik Bijeljina — 1st League - RS 2019

Leotar
Leotar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Radnik Bijeljina
Radnik Bijeljina
N. Leko 47'
M. Albijanic 13'
9/16/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 6Stadion Police

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Leotar53%
×Draw26%
Radnik Bijeljina21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leotar
1.50
Radnik Bijeljina
0.83

Leotar creates 81% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 34 away

creates per match

Leotar
1.88
Radnik Bijeljina
1.09

allows per match

Leotar
0.56
Radnik Bijeljina
1.12

finishing

Leotar+0.00on par
Radnik Bijeljina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leotar ↓

Radnik Bijeljina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Leotar or draw
79%
Leotar or Radnik Bijeljina
74%
Draw or Radnik Bijeljina
47%

Winning margin

Leotar wins by 2+
27%
Radnik Bijeljina wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Leotar 1+ goals
78%
Leotar 2+ goals
44%
Leotar 3+ goals
19%
Radnik Bijeljina 1+ goals
56%
Radnik Bijeljina 2+ goals
20%
Radnik Bijeljina 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Leotar (draw refunded)
72%
Radnik Bijeljina (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leotar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.56 · 64 matches

Radnik Bijeljina away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leotar attack 1.88 + Radnik Bijeljina defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.50

Radnik Bijeljina attack 1.09 + Leotar defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Leotar scores more
53%
level
26%
Radnik Bijeljina scores more
21%

Leotar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Leotar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
M. Albijanic
47'
N. Leko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Leotar 1–1 Radnik Bijeljina

Leotar and Radnik Bijeljina drew 1-1 in 1st League - RS on September 16, 2023.

Goals: M. Albijanic (13'), N. Leko (47').

The match was played at Stadion Police in Trebinje.