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Radnik Bijeljina vs Kozara Gradiška — 1st League - RS 2019

Radnik Bijeljina
Radnik Bijeljina
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kozara Gradiška
Kozara Gradiška
10/16/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 13Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Radnik Bijeljina68%
×Draw21%
Kozara Gradiška12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnik Bijeljina
1.93
Kozara Gradiška
0.64

Radnik Bijeljina creates 202% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 104 away

creates per match

Radnik Bijeljina
2.18
Kozara Gradiška
0.84

allows per match

Radnik Bijeljina
0.44
Kozara Gradiška
1.68

finishing

Radnik Bijeljina+0.00on par
Kozara Gradiška+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Bijeljina ↓

Kozara Gradiška →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Radnik Bijeljina or draw
88%
Radnik Bijeljina or Kozara Gradiška
79%
Draw or Kozara Gradiška
32%

Winning margin

Radnik Bijeljina wins by 2+
42%
Kozara Gradiška wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Radnik Bijeljina 1+ goals
85%
Radnik Bijeljina 2+ goals
57%
Radnik Bijeljina 3+ goals
30%
Kozara Gradiška 1+ goals
47%
Kozara Gradiška 2+ goals
14%
Kozara Gradiška 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Radnik Bijeljina (draw refunded)
86%
Kozara Gradiška (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Bijeljina at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.44 · 34 matches

Kozara Gradiška away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Bijeljina attack 2.18 + Kozara Gradiška defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.93

Kozara Gradiška attack 0.84 + Radnik Bijeljina defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Radnik Bijeljina scores more
68%
level
21%
Kozara Gradiška scores more
12%

Radnik Bijeljina at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Radnik Bijeljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Radnik Bijeljina 2–0 Kozara Gradiška

Radnik Bijeljina beat Kozara Gradiška 2-0 in 1st League - RS on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Bijeljina.