Kozara Gradiška 2–3 Radnik Bijeljina

Kozara Gradiška

FT

2 – 3

Radnik Bijeljina

3/16/2024

1st League - RS · RS - 20Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kozara Gradiška44%

×Draw27%

Radnik Bijeljina29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kozara GradiškaExpected goals in this matchRadnik Bijeljina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.07

Kozara Gradiška

1.37

Radnik Bijeljina

1.07

Kozara Gradiška creates 28% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 34 away

1.62

creates per match

1.09

1.05

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Kozara Gradiška

1.62

Radnik Bijeljina

1.09

allows per match

Kozara Gradiška

1.05

Radnik Bijeljina

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kozara Gradiška+0.00on par

Radnik Bijeljina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozara Gradiška ↓

Radnik Bijeljina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kozara Gradiška or draw

71%

Kozara Gradiška or Radnik Bijeljina

73%

Draw or Radnik Bijeljina

56%

Winning margin

Kozara Gradiška wins by 2+

21%

Radnik Bijeljina wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kozara Gradiška 1+ goals

75%

Kozara Gradiška 2+ goals

40%

Kozara Gradiška 3+ goals

16%

Radnik Bijeljina 1+ goals

66%

Radnik Bijeljina 2+ goals

29%

Radnik Bijeljina 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kozara Gradiška (draw refunded)

60%

Radnik Bijeljina (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozara Gradiška at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Radnik Bijeljina away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozara Gradiška attack 1.62 + Radnik Bijeljina defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.37

Radnik Bijeljina attack 1.09 + Kozara Gradiška defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kozara Gradiška scores more

44%

level

27%

Radnik Bijeljina scores more

29%

Kozara Gradiška at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kozara Gradiška will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff