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Radnički Zrenjanin vs Hajduk Divoš — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Zrenjanin
Radnički Zrenjanin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hajduk Divoš
Hajduk Divoš
9/7/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 4Stadion kod Skrobare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Radnički Zrenjanin40%
×Draw28%
Hajduk Divoš32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.25
Hajduk Divoš
1.10

Radnički Zrenjanin creates 14% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 30 away

creates per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.62
Hajduk Divoš
1.13

allows per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.07
Hajduk Divoš
0.87

finishing

Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par
Hajduk Divoš+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Zrenjanin ↓

Hajduk Divoš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Radnički Zrenjanin or draw
68%
Radnički Zrenjanin or Hajduk Divoš
72%
Draw or Hajduk Divoš
60%

Winning margin

Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+
17%
Hajduk Divoš wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals
71%
Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals
36%
Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals
13%
Hajduk Divoš 1+ goals
67%
Hajduk Divoš 2+ goals
30%
Hajduk Divoš 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)
55%
Hajduk Divoš (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Zrenjanin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Hajduk Divoš away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.62 + Hajduk Divoš defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.25

Hajduk Divoš attack 1.13 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Radnički Zrenjanin scores more
40%
level
28%
Hajduk Divoš scores more
32%

Radnički Zrenjanin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Radnički Zrenjanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnički Zrenjanin vs Hajduk Divoš

Radnički Zrenjanin beat Hajduk Divoš 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion kod Skrobare in Zrenjanin.