Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Radnički Zrenjanin vs Dunav Stari Banovci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Zrenjanin
Radnički Zrenjanin
FT
7 – 1
Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
5/29/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 37Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Radnički Zrenjanin68%
×Draw19%
Dunav Stari Banovci13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Zrenjanin
2.19
Dunav Stari Banovci
0.82

Radnički Zrenjanin creates 167% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 28 away

creates per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.62
Dunav Stari Banovci
0.57

allows per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.07
Dunav Stari Banovci
2.75

finishing

Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par
Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Zrenjanin ↓

Dunav Stari Banovci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Radnički Zrenjanin or draw
87%
Radnički Zrenjanin or Dunav Stari Banovci
81%
Draw or Dunav Stari Banovci
32%

Winning margin

Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+
44%
Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals
89%
Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals
64%
Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals
37%
Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
56%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
20%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)
84%
Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Zrenjanin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Dunav Stari Banovci away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.62 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.19

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 0.57 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Radnički Zrenjanin scores more
68%
level
19%
Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
13%

Radnički Zrenjanin at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Radnički Zrenjanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Radnički Zrenjanin 7–1 Dunav Stari Banovci

Radnički Zrenjanin beat Dunav Stari Banovci 7-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Sombor.