Radnički Zrenjanin 2–0 Dunav Stari Banovci

Radnički Zrenjanin

FT

2 – 0

Dunav Stari Banovci

9/14/2019

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 5Stadion Fk Radnički Zrenjanin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Radnički Zrenjanin68%

×Draw19%

Dunav Stari Banovci13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički ZrenjaninExpected goals in this matchDunav Stari Banovci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.82

Radnički Zrenjanin

2.19

Dunav Stari Banovci

0.82

Radnički Zrenjanin creates 167% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 28 away

1.62

creates per match

0.57

1.07

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.62

Dunav Stari Banovci

0.57

allows per match

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.07

Dunav Stari Banovci

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par

Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Zrenjanin ↓

Dunav Stari Banovci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Radnički Zrenjanin or draw

87%

Radnički Zrenjanin or Dunav Stari Banovci

81%

Draw or Dunav Stari Banovci

32%

Winning margin

Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+

44%

Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals

89%

Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals

64%

Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals

37%

Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals

56%

Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals

20%

Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)

84%

Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Zrenjanin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Dunav Stari Banovci away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.62 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.19

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 0.57 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Radnički Zrenjanin scores more

68%

level

19%

Dunav Stari Banovci scores more

13%

Radnički Zrenjanin at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Radnički Zrenjanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff