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Radnički Svilajnac vs Moravac Mrštane — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
FT
2 – 0
Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
9/16/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 7Stadion Bojača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Radnički Svilajnac80%
×Draw12%
Moravac Mrštane8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Svilajnac
3.21
Moravac Mrštane
0.95

Radnički Svilajnac creates 238% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 28 away

creates per match

Radnički Svilajnac
2.23
Moravac Mrštane
0.79

allows per match

Radnički Svilajnac
1.10
Moravac Mrštane
4.18

finishing

Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par
Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Svilajnac ↓

Moravac Mrštane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Radnički Svilajnac or draw
92%
Radnički Svilajnac or Moravac Mrštane
88%
Draw or Moravac Mrštane
20%

Winning margin

Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
62%
Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
96%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
82%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
60%
Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
61%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
25%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
91%
Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Svilajnac at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Moravac Mrštane away — creates 0.79, concedes 4.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Svilajnac attack 2.23 + Moravac Mrštane defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 3.21

Moravac Mrštane attack 0.79 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Radnički Svilajnac scores more
80%
level
12%
Moravac Mrštane scores more
8%

Radnički Svilajnac at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Radnički Svilajnac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Radnički Svilajnac 2–0 Moravac Mrštane

Radnički Svilajnac beat Moravac Mrštane 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on September 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Bojača in Svilajnac.