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Moravac Mrštane vs Radnički Svilajnac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
FT
0 – 7
Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
4/3/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 26SC Orion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Moravac Mrštane22%
×Draw20%
Radnički Svilajnac58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moravac Mrštane
1.36
Radnički Svilajnac
2.29

Radnički Svilajnac creates 68% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 78 away

creates per match

Moravac Mrštane
1.19
Radnički Svilajnac
1.37

allows per match

Moravac Mrštane
3.22
Radnički Svilajnac
1.54

finishing

Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par
Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moravac Mrštane ↓

Radnički Svilajnac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Moravac Mrštane or draw
42%
Moravac Mrštane or Radnički Svilajnac
80%
Draw or Radnički Svilajnac
78%

Winning margin

Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
9%
Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
74%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
39%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
16%
Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
90%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
66%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
28%
Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moravac Mrštane at home — creates 1.19, concedes 3.22 · 27 matches

Radnički Svilajnac away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moravac Mrštane attack 1.19 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Radnički Svilajnac attack 1.37 + Moravac Mrštane defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Moravac Mrštane scores more
22%
level
20%
Radnički Svilajnac scores more
58%

Radnički Svilajnac at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Radnički Svilajnac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Moravac Mrštane 0–7 Radnički Svilajnac

Radnički Svilajnac beat Moravac Mrštane 7-0 in Srpska Liga - East on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at SC Orion in Mrštane.