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Radnički Svilajnac vs Morava Ćuprija — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
FT
2 – 2
Morava Ćuprija
Morava Ćuprija
4/6/2025Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 20Stadion Bojača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Radnički Svilajnac52%
×Draw22%
Morava Ćuprija26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Svilajnac
1.93
Morava Ćuprija
1.30

Radnički Svilajnac creates 48% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 30 away

creates per match

Radnički Svilajnac
2.23
Morava Ćuprija
1.50

allows per match

Radnički Svilajnac
1.10
Morava Ćuprija
1.63

finishing

Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par
Morava Ćuprija+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Svilajnac ↓

Morava Ćuprija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Radnički Svilajnac or draw
74%
Radnički Svilajnac or Morava Ćuprija
78%
Draw or Morava Ćuprija
48%

Winning margin

Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
30%
Morava Ćuprija wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
85%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
57%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
30%
Morava Ćuprija 1+ goals
73%
Morava Ćuprija 2+ goals
37%
Morava Ćuprija 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
67%
Morava Ćuprija (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Svilajnac at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Morava Ćuprija away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Svilajnac attack 2.23 + Morava Ćuprija defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.93

Morava Ćuprija attack 1.50 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Radnički Svilajnac scores more
52%
level
22%
Morava Ćuprija scores more
26%

Radnički Svilajnac at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Radnički Svilajnac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Radnički Svilajnac 2–2 Morava Ćuprija

Radnički Svilajnac and Morava Ćuprija drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - East on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Bojača in Svilajnac.