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Morava Ćuprija vs Radnički Svilajnac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Morava Ćuprija
Morava Ćuprija
FT
0 – 0
Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
9/7/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 5Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Morava Ćuprija47%
×Draw24%
Radnički Svilajnac29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morava Ćuprija
1.69
Radnički Svilajnac
1.27

Morava Ćuprija creates 33% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 78 away

creates per match

Morava Ćuprija
1.83
Radnički Svilajnac
1.37

allows per match

Morava Ćuprija
1.17
Radnički Svilajnac
1.54

finishing

Morava Ćuprija+0.00on par
Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morava Ćuprija ↓

Radnički Svilajnac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Morava Ćuprija or draw
71%
Morava Ćuprija or Radnički Svilajnac
76%
Draw or Radnički Svilajnac
53%

Winning margin

Morava Ćuprija wins by 2+
25%
Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Morava Ćuprija 1+ goals
82%
Morava Ćuprija 2+ goals
50%
Morava Ćuprija 3+ goals
24%
Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
72%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
36%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Morava Ćuprija (draw refunded)
62%
Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morava Ćuprija at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

Radnički Svilajnac away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morava Ćuprija attack 1.83 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.69

Radnički Svilajnac attack 1.37 + Morava Ćuprija defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Morava Ćuprija scores more
47%
level
24%
Radnički Svilajnac scores more
29%

Morava Ćuprija at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Morava Ćuprija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Morava Ćuprija 0–0 Radnički Svilajnac

Morava Ćuprija and Radnički Svilajnac drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - East on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Ćuprija.