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Radnički Svilajnac vs Jedinstvo Kruševac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jedinstvo Kruševac
Jedinstvo Kruševac
5/18/2025Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 26Stadion Bojača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Radnički Svilajnac53%
×Draw24%
Jedinstvo Kruševac23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Svilajnac
1.71
Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.03

Radnički Svilajnac creates 66% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 45 away

creates per match

Radnički Svilajnac
2.23
Jedinstvo Kruševac
0.96

allows per match

Radnički Svilajnac
1.10
Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.20

finishing

Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Kruševac+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Svilajnac ↓

Jedinstvo Kruševac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Radnički Svilajnac or draw
77%
Radnički Svilajnac or Jedinstvo Kruševac
76%
Draw or Jedinstvo Kruševac
47%

Winning margin

Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
29%
Jedinstvo Kruševac wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
82%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
51%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
24%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 1+ goals
64%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 2+ goals
28%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
70%
Jedinstvo Kruševac (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Svilajnac at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Jedinstvo Kruševac away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Svilajnac attack 2.23 + Jedinstvo Kruševac defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.71

Jedinstvo Kruševac attack 0.96 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Radnički Svilajnac scores more
53%
level
24%
Jedinstvo Kruševac scores more
23%

Radnički Svilajnac at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Radnički Svilajnac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Radnički Svilajnac 0–1 Jedinstvo Kruševac

Jedinstvo Kruševac beat Radnički Svilajnac 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Bojača in Svilajnac.